After getting a bit lost in the question of whether we should in principle be able to have a clue about future ramifications of our actions, I would like to turn back to questions of how well we're actually doing so far. It looks like, for long-term projections, we are indeed pretty clueless. This document, … Continue reading How good are we at predicting the future?
I've noticed being confused about this, but luckily I now have blogging as a go-to tool to deal with confusions. I feel like, overall, there are two types of reason that people cite when they say that we can't predict long-term catastrophic risks. One is confined to the methods we are currently using and goes … Continue reading Why are we failing at long-term (catastrophic) risk-assessment?
What are the primary risks to society of failure for AI systems, and how can these risks be monitored and addressed at scale?DeepMind Ethics & Society I found myself cringing away from the question, while at the same time dismissing it - a sure sign that I should look at it for at least half … Continue reading AI risk: bullets, bullet-points, and poems