How good are we at predicting the future?

After getting a bit lost in the question of whether we should in principle be able to have a clue about future ramifications of our actions, I would like to turn back to questions of how well we're actually doing so far. It looks like, for long-term projections, we are indeed pretty clueless. This document, … Continue reading How good are we at predicting the future?

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Why are we failing at long-term (catastrophic) risk-assessment?

I've noticed being confused about this, but luckily I now have blogging as a go-to tool to deal with confusions. I feel like, overall, there are two types of reason that people cite when they say that we can't predict long-term catastrophic risks. One is confined to the methods we are currently using  and goes … Continue reading Why are we failing at long-term (catastrophic) risk-assessment?