How good are we at predicting the future?

After getting a bit lost in the question of whether we should in principle be able to have a clue about future ramifications of our actions, I would like to turn back to questions of how well we're actually doing so far. It looks like, for long-term projections, we are indeed pretty clueless. This document, … Continue reading How good are we at predicting the future?

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Zooming in: Writing Sequence Number Two

"Another writing challenge!?" you ask. Fair enough. Maybe I'll drop the word "challenge", to make it seem less grandiose. But it definitely seems to be the case that I deal better with work/research/thinking/writing sprints than with trying to produce a constant trickle of output. Even when I remembered that "write it down" was a good … Continue reading Zooming in: Writing Sequence Number Two

How likely are AIs to be agents? What does it mean to be an agent?

I seem unable to answer the former question without reference to the latter. I've been a bit confused about what it means to be an agent. I also know that other people are spending actual time doing actual philosophy on the agent vs. tools question, but that shall not detract me from starting some preliminary … Continue reading How likely are AIs to be agents? What does it mean to be an agent?